Why Kerry Will Lose

Senator John Kerry tonight will accept the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.  Unfortunately for Democrats and the rest of us vehemently opposed to the current president, I still believe Kerry will lose.  Why?  "'I'd damn near vote for a dishwasher in a good restaurant rather than vote for Bush,' [Boston voter Keith] Willits said."  That says it all.  Even among the core of the Democratic party, Kerry's support is based, not on him or his agenda, but simply on the fact that he is not George Bush.  This has become known as the ABBA (anyone but Bush again) strategy.  In any campaign, ultimately the candidate has to talk about him- or herself.  Simply saying "the other guy stinks" isn't going to carry a lot of weight with most less partisan voters, especially when the less partisan voters are perhaps not as convinced that the other guy really does stink.  It comes down to what the candidate can offer the voters, not how bad the other guy is.  If Kerry cannot even motivate his own party, the foundation of his campaign, how do you think he will do with the more centrist voter who may not be so vehemently opposed to what Bush has done as president as a hardcore Democrat?

Ultimately, the Democrats seem to be following the script written by the Republicans in 1996.  We remember the story.  The more extreme wing of the opposition party is passionately committed to bringing down the incumbent president.  The incumbent has some popularity, but voters are not totally convinced and are open to considering the opposition.   To win, the party establishment quickly settles on a long-serving Senator presumed to be able to appeal across the party, but who lacks a certain charisma and presence.  Defying the party establishment, a renegade outsider claims the early attention in the primary campaign.  Fearing that the renegade might actually win, voters supporting the disparate, more mainstream candidates, quickly close ranks behind the charisma-challenged senator the establishment annointed to begin with, converting a candidate struggling to find traction to front runner.  Lacking much of an agenda other than "I'm not the other guy", the senator fails to spark much interest outside the reluctant support given by his own party, many of whom liked other candidates and have compromised on this guy because he was more "electable".  The story climaxes on election day when the incumbent wins in a cake walk.

Kerry is walking down Dole Street.  Unless he and his supporters can start articulating a clear agenda of why voters should choose him, rather than merely why the other guy is bad, he will ultimately follow Dole's lead into oblivion.